Families Flee Canadian Cities for Affordable Suburbs

The quest for affordable living is prompting young families across Canada to leave the country’s largest cities for more economical options. Despite a slight decline in the record pandemic-era exodus, the trend continues to be driven by escalating housing costs, alongside other influential factors.

Efforts to address this issue are already underway, with projects like Montreal’s REM light-rail system and the expansion of Toronto’s GO Transit network representing positive steps. BMO senior economist suggests further expanding transportation corridors, such as connecting Windsor, Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal, to enhance efficiency and reduce commuting times, thereby making peripheral living more attractive and practical for families seeking relief from high city costs.

Kavcic highlights that challenging affordability conditions in big-city cores are compelling many families to seek better living conditions and more space in less expensive areas. This movement is being further encouraged by demographic trends, infrastructure developments, and evolving work cultures.

Statistics Canada data reveals that Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver experienced a combined net intraprovincial migration of just over 132,000 people in 2022-2023. Although this figure has decreased from over 148,000 in the previous year, it remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, which averaged just over 42,000 annually from 2001 to 2019.

While these cities saw population growth in 2022-2023 — Vancouver by 4.1%, Toronto by 3.3%, and Montreal by 2.9% — this increase was largely driven by an influx of non-permanent residents, contributing to Canada’s recent population surge.

Toronto has experienced the most pronounced outflow, with net intraprovincial migration exceeding 93,000 in 2022-2023 and surpassing 100,000 in 2021-2022. Kavcic attributes this trend to the high number of young families, particularly those with adults in their late 20s or early 30s, who are at a peak in Canada and are most likely to relocate. Additionally, the rise of remote and hybrid work arrangements, which gained popularity during the pandemic, has facilitated these moves, even for those not fully remote.

Statistics Canada notes that this urban exodus often results in net population gains for smaller municipalities on the periphery of major cities, fueling “fuelling urban spread.” Kavcic emphasizes the need for improved transportation infrastructure to ease the transition for those moving away from city centers. Enhanced connectivity can help mitigate the affordability crisis by making it more feasible for people to commute from more affordable areas.